May 28 2009

A closed society in the open world

by at 4:34 pm under Uncategorized

I would like to raise international attention to the possible upheaval of Korean peninsula in the near future.

It is well known that Korean peninsula suffered from Korean War, the proxy war of Cold War, in 1950s and the land divided into two parts; North Korea and South Korea as the result. Although ‘Cold War’ ended in 1989 and the experiment of world communism party turned to be failed after all, North Korea is still maintaining communism as its ruling ideology. However, since Kim Il-sung, the long term communist leader of North Korea, passed away in 1994, North Korean society has been confronting various problems. While development has been long stagnated, the country gradually lost strong connection with old alliances such as Soviet Union and China. There are chronic food deficiency, lack of electricity, abject poverty, widespread famine and disease. North Korean government also gave up the central food distribution system several years ago and people suddenly forced to find a way to feed themselves in the devastated land.

Experts say North Korean society will face upheaval in the near future. There are several scenarios; a sudden collapse, coup-d’état, gradual open, and so forth. Whatever it would be, it will cost huge amount of money to rebuild the North Korea. It would sound like far away land story to developed countries. However, North Korea has very important meaning to the USA in a geopolitical sense. The country bordered by China and Russia, and when North Korea collapse all of a sudden, it is very likely to be absorbed into China to give greater power to the fast emerging country.

There are six-party talks (South and North Korea, Japan, USA, China, and Russia) to deal with the peace matter in Korean Peninsula, and their role is pivotal for the admirable change of North Korea. At the same time, general global citizens need to pay constant attention to the North Korean problem, not just when the country shows its military potential like recent one. I believe that North Korea will continue nuclear development unless they find other cards to negotiate with the powerful partners in the six-party talk as well as in international society.

Building substantial trust is important to lead soft landing of impending change of North Korea. The country is approaching to the cliff. If they became nothing to lose, we cannot predict what will happen. Then how to create substantial mutual understanding to prevent the extreme action of North Korea? Unfortunately it is extremely hard to find a way to persuade North Korean people to accept the change and to come out to international society since the country is tightly closed.

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